Toronto FC 1-4 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
39%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.68
2-3 Goals
33%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.29
6+ Goals
13%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 28% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.43
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
12%
5.39
X/2
13%
5.91
X/X
10%
4.8
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
20%
3.89
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
38%
-1.5pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
39%
Away Win
35%
+4.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.0pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toronto FC EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.29/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.40
-8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +35%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
14.9 Crosses 15.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toronto FC
0W-2D-4L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.74 xG 1.56
60% Ball Possession 40%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
471 Passes 276
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.07.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC CONLK
23.06.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
08.10.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 3-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
18.05.2023 Toronto FC Toronto FC 0-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
19.06.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-0 HT 1-0 Toronto FC Toronto FC ABD
05.03.2022 Toronto FC Toronto FC 1-4 HT 1-4 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toronto FC
1-4
AWAY New York Red Bulls
1.69 xG 2.20
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
365 Passes 278
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 30
15 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York Red Bulls swept aside Toronto FC 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 24% / 39% — and on the day New York Red Bulls made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Toronto FC had 56% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 44%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.69 to 2.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Toronto FC and 2.00 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls?

Toronto FC 1-4 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toronto FC vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated an New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Toronto FC 37%, draw 24%, New York Red Bulls 39%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (New York Red Bulls)
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