America Mineiro 2-1 Sport Recife — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.54
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.65
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.54 — our 37% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.1pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 33%
-15% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -11%
1.20/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.01
+9% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -4%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
18.2 Crosses 17.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME America Mineiro
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sport Recife
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.15 xG 1.20
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
291 Passes 340
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.07.2024 Sport Recife Sport Recife 1-1 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
11.11.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-3 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
20.07.2021 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
21.09.2019 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-2 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
19.05.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
23.08.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-2 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME America Mineiro
2-1
AWAY Sport Recife
1.91 xG 0.90
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 7
267 Passes 451
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH America Mineiro vs Sport Recife
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

America Mineiro squeezed past Sport Recife 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had America Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, America Mineiro had 40% of the ball to Sport Recife's 60%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.91 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for America Mineiro and 1.00 for Sport Recife.

What was the final score of America Mineiro vs Sport Recife?

America Mineiro 2-1 Sport Recife in the Brazil - Serie B on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for America Mineiro vs Sport Recife?

Before kick-off our model rated a America Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split America Mineiro 43%, draw 28%, Sport Recife 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (America Mineiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (America Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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