Ituano 0-2 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.5
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
38%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.6
Over 2.5
39%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.52
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.7
6+ Goals
7%
26.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.52 — our 37% vs market 33.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
25%
+5.8pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.9pp
38%
Away Win
47%
-8.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
59%
+2.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
41%
-2.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-5.2pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ituano EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 51%
+3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
0.96/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/0.95
+15% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
17.9 Crosses 19.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ituano
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Santos
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.45 xG 1.42
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
209 Passes 449
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.07.2024 Santos Santos 2-0 HT 2-0 Ituano Ituano BR2
05.03.2023 Ituano Ituano 3-0 HT 2-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
13.02.2022 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 1-0 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
14.03.2021 Santos Santos 2-1 HT 2-1 Ituano Ituano BREPAU
22.02.2020 Ituano Ituano 2-0 HT 2-0 Santos Santos BREPAU
04.02.2019 Ituano Ituano 5-1 HT 4-1 Santos Santos BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ituano
0-2
AWAY Santos
0.57 xG 0.93
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
358 Passes 345
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ituano vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos saw off Ituano 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (31% / 31% / 38%) promised a tight game; Santos found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Ituano had 50% of the ball to Santos's 50%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 0.57 to 0.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ituano and 1.17 for Santos.

What was the final score of Ituano vs Santos?

Ituano 0-2 Santos in the Brazil - Serie B on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ituano vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Ituano 31%, draw 31%, Santos 38%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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