Sport Recife 1-1 America Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.02
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.67
Over 2.5
38%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.35
6+ Goals
9%
22.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 36% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
25%
Away Win
26%
-1.1pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.1pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 29%
+10% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +8%
1.17/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.97
+2% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +24%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
328 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 77%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
22.8 Crosses 15.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
2W-0D-4L
AWAY America Mineiro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.14 xG 1.19
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
357 Passes 302
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.11.2021 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-3 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
20.07.2021 America Mineiro America Mineiro 0-1 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
21.09.2019 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-2 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR2
19.05.2019 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-2 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
23.08.2018 Sport Recife Sport Recife 0-2 HT 0-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
15.04.2018 America Mineiro America Mineiro 3-0 HT 3-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
1-1
AWAY America Mineiro
1.51 xG 0.97
61% Ball Possession 39%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
392 Passes 213
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
26 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs America Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife and America Mineiro shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sport Recife at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Sport Recife had 61% of the ball to America Mineiro's 39%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.51 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sport Recife and 1.83 for America Mineiro.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs America Mineiro?

Sport Recife 1-1 America Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie B on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs America Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 48%, draw 28%, America Mineiro 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sport Recife), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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