Novorizontino 1-1 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 13 Jul 2024

📅13/07/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.27
No
57%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.23
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.56
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.2pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+4.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.7pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 23%
-15% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.48/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.14
-2% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 73%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
25.3 Crosses 18.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novorizontino
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Guarani FC
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.51 xG 1.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 Passes 283
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.09.2023 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
08.06.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
21.09.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-0 HT 2-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
12.06.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-2 HT 0-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
12.02.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-2 HT 0-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BREPAU
03.05.2021 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-1 HT 1-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BREPAU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novorizontino
1-1
AWAY Guarani FC
0.77 xG 0.40
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
249 Passes 357
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
15 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Novorizontino vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novorizontino and Guarani FC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Novorizontino at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Novorizontino had 42% of the ball to Guarani FC's 58%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 0.77 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guarani FC led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Novorizontino and 1.67 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Novorizontino vs Guarani FC?

Novorizontino 1-1 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novorizontino vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novorizontino win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Novorizontino 50%, draw 26%, Guarani FC 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Novorizontino), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Novorizontino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
13 Jul 2024
01:00 Ponte Preta vs Mirassol FC Analysis →
03:00 Botafogo SP vs Amazonas Analysis →
03:30 Paysandu vs Ceara Analysis →
23:00 Sport Recife vs America Mineiro Analysis →