Swansea City 1-3 Manchester City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 29 Oct 2025

Swansea City
1-3 HT 1-1
Manchester City
📅29/10/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
England - League Cup – 2025/2026

Swansea City vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
9.57
Draw
15%
5.71
Away
72%
1.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.59
Over 2.5
59%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.55
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
28%
2.56
6+ Goals
13%
5.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
23.1
1/2
6%
22.7
1/X
4%
30.5
X/1
4%
26.5
X/2
11%
3.81
X/X
5%
9.77
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
55%
1.33
2/X
6%
25.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
7%
+5.8pp
15%
Draw
14%
+0.6pp
72%
Away Win
79%
-6.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.4pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Swansea City v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swansea City EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester City EU Bookmakers 84%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -13%
0.57/2.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.69/0.60
+150% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +6%
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
270 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 574 · 89%
13.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 47.7
10.4 Crosses 19.3
3.9 Yellow Cards 1.2

Swansea City vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Swansea City
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Manchester City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
0.51 xG 3.00
28% Ball Possession 72%
6 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
205 Passes 682
72% Pass Accuracy 90%
8 Box Touches 49
6 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.02.2021 Swansea City Swansea City 1-3 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City FAK
16.03.2019 Swansea City Swansea City 2-3 HT 2-0 Manchester City Manchester City FAK
22.04.2018 Manchester City Manchester City 5-0 HT 2-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNP
13.12.2017 Swansea City Swansea City 0-4 HT 0-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
05.02.2017 Manchester City Manchester City 2-1 HT 1-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNP
24.09.2016 Swansea City Swansea City 1-3 HT 1-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP

Swansea City 1-3 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swansea City
1-3
AWAY Manchester City
0.25 xG 1.43
24% Ball Possession 76%
2 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
178 Passes 720
75% Pass Accuracy 90%
2 Box Touches 57
11 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Swansea City vs Manchester City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City saw off Swansea City 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 72%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Swansea City had 24% of the ball to Manchester City's 76%, shots finished 2-24, expected goals 0.25 to 1.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Swansea City and 3.33 for Manchester City.

What was the final score of Swansea City vs Manchester City?

Swansea City 1-3 Manchester City in the England - League Cup on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swansea City vs Manchester City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Swansea City 13%, draw 15%, Manchester City 72%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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