URA vs UPDF Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
URA v UPDF — Team-Based Signals
URA vs UPDF Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-1
UPDF
UGA
URA 3-2 UPDF — Actual Match Statistics
URA edged past UPDF 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had URA as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, URA had 44% of the ball to UPDF's 56%, shots finished 11-11.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, URA had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for URA and 0.67 for UPDF.
What was the final score of URA vs UPDF?
URA 3-2 UPDF in the Uganda - Premier League on 29/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for URA vs UPDF?
Before kick-off our model rated a URA win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split URA 67%, draw 22%, UPDF 11%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (URA) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.