Cerro Porteno 2-3 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 29 Nov 2024

📅29/11/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.67
Over 2.5
38%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.1pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.4pp
38%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.1pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 28%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -23% / -24%
1.59/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.69
+13% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerro Porteno
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Libertad
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
04.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-3 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
12.02.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
07.11.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
27.08.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
03.06.2023 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerro Porteno
2-3
AWAY Libertad
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cerro Porteno vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad edged past Cerro Porteno 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Cerro Porteno at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cerro Porteno had 52% of the ball to Libertad's 48%, shots finished 10-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerro Porteno had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cerro Porteno and 1.00 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Cerro Porteno vs Libertad?

Cerro Porteno 2-3 Libertad in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 29/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerro Porteno vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerro Porteno win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cerro Porteno 42%, draw 29%, Libertad 29%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Cerro Porteno) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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