Lechia Gdansk 5-1 Nieciecza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.64
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
28%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
23%
2.78
6+ Goals
10%
7.73
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.4 — our 28% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
2.11
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
14%
4.47
X/2
10%
10.05
X/X
7%
6.08
2/1
8%
20.65
2/2
14%
7.34
2/X
6%
15.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
56%
-3.8pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.9pp
28%
Away Win
21%
+7.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 24%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.68/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.57
-23% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
22.4 Crosses 17.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Nieciecza
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.33 xG 1.23
52% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 6
377 Passes 256
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-1 HT 1-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL1
01.10.2023 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-0 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL1
09.04.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 2-0 HT 1-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL
16.10.2021 Nieciecza Nieciecza 0-2 HT 0-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
05.12.2018 Nieciecza Nieciecza 1-3 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POLK
04.05.2018 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-1 HT 0-0 Nieciecza Nieciecza POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
5-1
AWAY Nieciecza
3.15 xG 0.99
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
443 Passes 338
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Nieciecza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lechia Gdansk ran out comfortable winners over Nieciecza 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lechia Gdansk as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 55% of the ball to Nieciecza's 45%, shots finished 16-4, expected goals 3.15 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lechia Gdansk had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.50 for Nieciecza.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Nieciecza?

Lechia Gdansk 5-1 Nieciecza in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Nieciecza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lechia Gdansk win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 53%, draw 19%, Nieciecza 28%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lechia Gdansk), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lechia Gdansk) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL More Poland - Ekstraklasa
29 Nov 2025
19:30 Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow Analysis →
22:15 Katowice vs Pogon Szczecin Analysis →