Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Nov 2025

Casa Pia
0-2 HT 0-0
Alverca
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Casa Pia vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
24%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.54
Over 2.5
49%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.03
No
48%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.06
6+ Goals
9%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.78
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.3
X/1
11%
5.16
X/2
9%
5.84
X/X
10%
3.8
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
2/2
21%
4.55
2/X
5%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+2.8pp
24%
Draw
29%
-5.8pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
61%
-9.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
39%
+9.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
45%
+7.0pp
48%
BTTS No
55%
-7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Alverca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 36%
-9% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.09/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/2.60
-15% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +77% / -37%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
284 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
19.8 Crosses 10.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 4.0

Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
0-2
AWAY Alverca
0.17 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
5 Total Shots 10
0 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
371 Passes 352
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca got the better of Casa Pia 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Casa Pia at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Casa Pia had 52% of the ball to Alverca's 48%, shots finished 5-10, expected goals 0.17 to 1.47.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Alverca?

Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 41%, draw 24%, Alverca 35%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Casa Pia), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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