Gil Vicente 0-1 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
22%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.82
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.0
6+ Goals
8%
18.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 30% vs market 29.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.2
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
14.9
X/1
19%
4.14
X/2
11%
10.2
X/X
13%
4.61
2/1
11%
26.5
2/2
7%
8.77
2/X
7%
16.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-1.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.6pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.56/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.63
+8% / +93% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -5%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
393 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 76%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
16.7 Crosses 17.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gil Vicente
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Tondela
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.30 xG 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
390 Passes 284
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
08.05.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR
28.12.2021 Tondela Tondela 0-3 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
24.07.2021 Tondela Tondela 0-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente PORLC
28.02.2021 Tondela Tondela 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
17.10.2020 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
14.07.2020 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 3-2 HT 1-0 Tondela Tondela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gil Vicente
0-1
AWAY Tondela
0.52 xG 1.01
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 3
390 Passes 193
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
27 Box Touches 10
41 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gil Vicente vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela squeezed past Gil Vicente 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Gil Vicente at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Gil Vicente had 65% of the ball to Tondela's 35%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 0.52 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gil Vicente had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Gil Vicente and 0.67 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Gil Vicente vs Tondela?

Gil Vicente 0-1 Tondela in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gil Vicente vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Gil Vicente 54%, draw 24%, Tondela 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gil Vicente) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gil Vicente) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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