Nacional 1-2 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Nov 2025

Nacional
1-2 HT 0-0
Benfica
📅29/11/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Nacional vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
13%
5.91
Draw
16%
4.34
Away
71%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.49
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.32
6+ Goals
10%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 25% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
13.8
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
4%
22.7
X/1
5%
15.35
X/2
23%
3.75
X/X
6%
6.31
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
41%
1.68
2/X
6%
19.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
13%
Home Win
14%
-0.3pp
16%
Draw
20%
-3.9pp
71%
Away Win
67%
+4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 71%
-10% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
0.98/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/0.91
-28% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -2%
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
220 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 78%
17.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
21.3 Crosses 19.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Nacional vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Benfica
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 3.83
0.97 xG 2.97
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
240 Passes 406
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.03.2025 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR
19.12.2024 Nacional Nacional 0-2 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
11.05.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-3 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
25.01.2021 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
10.02.2019 Benfica Benfica 10-0 HT 3-0 Nacional Nacional POR
02.09.2018 Nacional Nacional 0-4 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POR

Nacional 1-2 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
1-2
AWAY Benfica
0.39 xG 2.40
30% Ball Possession 70%
6 Total Shots 30
2 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 11
177 Passes 503
67% Pass Accuracy 85%
4 Box Touches 62
7 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica edged past Nacional 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nacional had 30% of the ball to Benfica's 70%, shots finished 6-30, expected goals 0.39 to 2.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Benfica's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Nacional and 3.83 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Benfica?

Nacional 1-2 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Nacional 13%, draw 16%, Benfica 71%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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