Benfica 3-0 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

Benfica
3-0 HT 2-0
Nacional
📅08/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-0 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Benfica vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.27
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
14%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.59
Over 2.5
56%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.4
2-3 Goals
39%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.56
6+ Goals
13%
5.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.38
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
23.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
33%
3.82
X/2
4%
23.0
X/X
10%
9.15
2/1
8%
21.45
2/2
5%
19.5
2/X
6%
27.5
Value flag · X/1 at 3.82 — our 33% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
74%
-9.7pp
21%
Draw
16%
+5.3pp
14%
Away Win
10%
+4.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
35%
+9.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
65%
-9.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
2.79/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.78
+25% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
410 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 77%
36.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
22.9 Crosses 13.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.3

Benfica vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Nacional
3.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.73 xG 0.68
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
433 Passes 219
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 9
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.12.2024 Nacional Nacional 0-2 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
11.05.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-3 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
25.01.2021 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
10.02.2019 Benfica Benfica 10-0 HT 3-0 Nacional Nacional POR
02.09.2018 Nacional Nacional 0-4 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POR
05.02.2017 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Nacional Nacional POR

Benfica 3-0 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-0
AWAY Nacional
4.16 xG 2.45
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
398 Passes 299
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Nacional 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 56% of the ball to Nacional's 44%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 4.16 to 2.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.83 goals for Benfica and 0.33 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Nacional?

Benfica 3-0 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Benfica 65%, draw 21%, Nacional 14%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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