AVS 0-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

AVS
0-1 HT 0-0
Arouca
📅08/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.94
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
41%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.69
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.86
1/2
5%
29.0
1/X
6%
13.1
X/1
11%
6.56
X/2
16%
5.11
X/X
13%
4.0
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.29
2/X
8%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
31%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
41%
Away Win
40%
+1.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 43%
+28% / +28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.44/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/1.40
+29% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +68% / -10%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
10.9 Crosses 16.2
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Arouca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.10 xG 1.03
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
234 Passes 463
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Arouca Arouca 1-1 HT 1-0 AVS AVS POR
26.09.2023 AVS AVS 1-2 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
0-1
AWAY Arouca
0.94 xG 2.60
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
283 Passes 413
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AVS vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca nicked a narrow win over AVS 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, AVS had 43% of the ball to Arouca's 57%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.94 to 2.60 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arouca's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AVS and 1.50 for Arouca.

What was the final score of AVS vs Arouca?

AVS 0-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AVS 31%, draw 27%, Arouca 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
8 Mar 2025
21:00 Estoril vs Farense Analysis →
21:00 Benfica vs Nacional Analysis →
23:30 Sporting Braga vs Porto Analysis →