AVS vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
AVS v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
AVS vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
AVS 0-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca nicked a narrow win over AVS 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, AVS had 43% of the ball to Arouca's 57%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.94 to 2.60 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arouca's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for AVS and 1.50 for Arouca.
What was the final score of AVS vs Arouca?
AVS 0-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for AVS vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AVS 31%, draw 27%, Arouca 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.