Sporting Braga 1-0 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Mar 2025

📅08/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
4.02
6+ Goals
11%
19.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.11
1/2
8%
28.0
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
15%
6.71
X/2
12%
4.87
X/X
12%
4.16
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.11
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
29%
+3.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.5pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.0pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 46%
-8% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +19%
1.02/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.71
-40% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +114%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
324 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
21.6 Crosses 16.6
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Porto
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.76 xG 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
324 Passes 348
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
18.05.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
14.01.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
04.06.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POK
19.03.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
30.09.2022 Porto Porto 4-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-0
AWAY Porto
0.20 xG 0.91
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
319 Passes 416
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Porto 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Sporting Braga made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 45% of the ball to Porto's 55%, shots finished 7-7, expected goals 0.20 to 0.91 — the balance of chances actually favoured Porto.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.83 for Porto.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Porto?

Sporting Braga 1-0 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 33%, draw 27%, Porto 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Porto) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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