Derby County 0-1 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Dec 2024

Derby County
0-1 HT 0-0
Leeds United
📅29/12/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
4.65
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
45%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.16
No
53%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.55
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.31
6+ Goals
9%
22.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.07
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
11%
19.15
X/1
11%
10.15
X/2
17%
3.51
X/X
11%
4.78
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.15
2/X
6%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
18%
+9.3pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.9pp
45%
Away Win
58%
-13.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.0pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 62%
+20% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.17/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.79
+31% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +21%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
213 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 78%
12.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.3
14.0 Crosses 18.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.4

Derby County vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Leeds United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.71 xG 1.82
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
245 Passes 397
71% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.12.2024 Leeds United Leeds United 2-0 HT 2-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
19.07.2020 Derby County Derby County 1-3 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
21.09.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 1-1 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
15.05.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 2-4 HT 1-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
11.05.2019 Derby County Derby County 0-1 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL
11.01.2019 Leeds United Leeds United 2-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Derby County 0-1 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
0-1
AWAY Leeds United
0.35 xG 2.67
39% Ball Possession 61%
4 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
177 Passes 350
65% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 31
10 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leeds United nicked a narrow win over Derby County 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Leeds United as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Derby County had 39% of the ball to Leeds United's 61%, shots finished 4-17, expected goals 0.35 to 2.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Leeds United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leeds United led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Derby County and 1.83 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Leeds United?

Derby County 0-1 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Derby County 28%, draw 28%, Leeds United 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leeds United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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