Stoke City 1-0 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.95
1/2
7%
27.0
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
11%
6.71
X/2
14%
4.75
X/X
10%
4.48
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
20%
3.04
2/X
9%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+1.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
41%
Away Win
43%
-2.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 48%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.20/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/0.91
-29% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +26%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 80%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.5
21.0 Crosses 19.4
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sunderland
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.22 xG 1.47
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
319 Passes 300
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
07.12.2024 Sunderland Sunderland 2-1 HT 1-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
27.01.2024 Sunderland Sunderland 3-1 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
21.10.2023 Stoke City Stoke City 2-1 HT 1-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
04.03.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 1-5 HT 0-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
20.08.2022 Stoke City Stoke City 0-1 HT 0-1 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
14.01.2017 Sunderland Sunderland 1-3 HT 1-3 Stoke City Stoke City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
1-0
AWAY Sunderland
0.81 xG 2.06
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 12
180 Passes 268
67% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 45
19 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City edged past Sunderland 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sunderland at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Stoke City had 45% of the ball to Sunderland's 55%, shots finished 11-22, expected goals 0.81 to 2.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sunderland.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Stoke City and 1.50 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Sunderland?

Stoke City 1-0 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sunderland win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 32%, draw 27%, Sunderland 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sunderland) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sunderland) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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