Crystal Palace 2-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 29 Dec 2024

Crystal Palace
2-1 HT 1-1
Southampton
📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Crystal Palace vs Southampton Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.03
Over 2.5
56%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.82
No
45%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
27%
3.11
6+ Goals
12%
10.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.93
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.65
X/1
15%
3.76
X/2
14%
11.8
X/X
7%
5.87
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.55
2/2
6%
9.24
2/X
9%
17.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.55 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.8pp
23%
Draw
22%
+0.7pp
26%
Away Win
17%
+9.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
45%
-1.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
55%
+1.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.1pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crystal Palace v Southampton — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crystal Palace EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -19%
1.94/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.58
+14% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
431 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 73%
34.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
22.0 Crosses 17.4
0.7 Yellow Cards 2.5

Crystal Palace vs Southampton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crystal Palace
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Southampton
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.13 xG 0.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
328 Passes 337
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
15.04.2023 Southampton Southampton 0-2 HT 0-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
07.01.2023 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-2 HT 1-1 Southampton Southampton FAK
29.10.2022 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 1-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
30.04.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-0 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP
15.12.2021 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 2-2 HT 1-2 Southampton Southampton İNP
11.05.2021 Southampton Southampton 3-1 HT 1-1 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace İNP

Crystal Palace 2-1 Southampton — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crystal Palace
2-1
AWAY Southampton
2.03 xG 0.94
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
298 Passes 358
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crystal Palace vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crystal Palace squeezed past Southampton 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Crystal Palace as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Crystal Palace had 46% of the ball to Southampton's 54%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.03 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crystal Palace had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.33 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Crystal Palace vs Southampton?

Crystal Palace 2-1 Southampton in the England - Premier League on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crystal Palace vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crystal Palace win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Crystal Palace 51%, draw 23%, Southampton 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crystal Palace), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crystal Palace) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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