Farense 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
4.13
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
41%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.59
Over 2.5
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.39
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
4.68
6+ Goals
7%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
21%
8.09
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
7%
17.1
X/1
11%
9.15
X/2
17%
3.8
X/X
10%
4.16
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.39
2/X
6%
16.1
Value flag · 1/1 at 8.09 — our 21% vs market 8.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
21%
+15.2pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.2pp
41%
Away Win
53%
-12.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.3pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 57%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
2.33/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/0.94
+54% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -16%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
240 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 82%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
18.7 Crosses 27.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.44 xG 1.35
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
231 Passes 376
73% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-1 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
02.12.2023 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
06.05.2021 Farense Farense 2-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
18.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR
17.02.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 2-1 Farense Farense POR
18.01.2002 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 1-1 Farense Farense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
2-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.35 xG 2.97
33% Ball Possession 67%
6 Total Shots 27
2 Shots on Target 12
6 Corners 9
130 Passes 380
57% Pass Accuracy 81%
9 Box Touches 50
16 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Farense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense and Vitoria Guimaraes couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 23% / 41%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Farense had 33% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 67%, shots finished 6-27, expected goals 0.35 to 2.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Farense and 2.00 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Farense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Farense 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Farense 36%, draw 23%, Vitoria Guimaraes 41%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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