Sporting Braga 1-2 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.42
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.29
6+ Goals
11%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 26% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.92
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.2
X/1
25%
3.68
X/2
7%
12.15
X/X
16%
5.67
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
9%
9.85
2/X
5%
18.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-9.9pp
27%
Draw
22%
+4.7pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.9pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
2.10/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/0.96
+3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +74% / +67%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 72%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
25.1 Crosses 15.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.87 xG 1.06
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
518 Passes 306
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.05.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-3 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
30.12.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-3 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
01.11.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia PORLC
21.04.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
03.12.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PORLC
06.11.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-2
AWAY Casa Pia
1.05 xG 1.45
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
478 Passes 297
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
25 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia nicked a narrow win over Sporting Braga 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Braga at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 60% of the ball to Casa Pia's 40%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.05 to 1.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.00 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Casa Pia?

Sporting Braga 1-2 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 52%, draw 27%, Casa Pia 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ BTTS No
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