Sporting CP 1-0 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.38
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
9%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 31% vs market 23.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.58
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
5%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.46
X/2
10%
5.79
X/X
13%
4.7
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
15%
3.9
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
38%
+6.6pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
30%
Away Win
35%
-4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 38%
+18% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.39/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/2.03
+32% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -40%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
291 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
16.5 Crosses 14.5
4.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Benfica
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.44 xG 1.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
350 Passes 371
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POR
02.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POK
29.02.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-1 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POK
12.11.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
21.05.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-2 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
15.01.2023 Benfica Benfica 2-2 HT 1-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
1-0
AWAY Benfica
1.20 xG 0.78
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 8
338 Passes 396
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 34
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP nicked a narrow win over Benfica 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sporting CP had 45% of the ball to Benfica's 55%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.20 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sporting CP and 1.67 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Sporting CP 1-0 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 45%, draw 25%, Benfica 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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