Roma 3-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 29 Dec 2025

Roma
3-1 HT 3-0
Genoa
📅29/12/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.35
6+ Goals
9%
22.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 33% vs market 31.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.06
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
18%
3.93
X/2
8%
11.5
X/X
12%
4.54
2/1
9%
28.5
2/2
7%
10.55
2/X
5%
18.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-2.2pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+1.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-1.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.7pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 19%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +10%
1.78/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.32
+15% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +27%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
28.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
19.6 Crosses 14.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Genoa
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.55 xG 0.74
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
419 Passes 290
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 17
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.01.2025 Roma Roma 3-1 HT 1-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
15.09.2024 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA
19.05.2024 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
28.09.2023 Genoa Genoa 4-1 HT 2-1 Roma Roma İTA
12.01.2023 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTK
05.02.2022 Roma Roma 0-0 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
3-1
AWAY Genoa
1.37 xG 0.70
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
476 Passes 282
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
40 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roma vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma beat Genoa 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roma had 61% of the ball to Genoa's 39%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.37 to 0.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Roma and 1.00 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Roma vs Genoa?

Roma 3-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 29/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Roma 57%, draw 24%, Genoa 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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