FC Juarez 1-0 Santos Laguna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 29% vs market 23.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-5.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.7pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos Laguna EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -18%
1.23/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.74
+17% / -47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -21%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
306 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 77%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
19.2 Crosses 15.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Juarez
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.21 xG 1.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
308 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2024 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
01.04.2024 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-1 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
30.10.2023 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 5-1 HT 2-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
12.02.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 3-1 HT 0-1 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
19.09.2022 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
19.02.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-0 HT 0-0 Santos Laguna Santos Laguna MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Juarez
1-0
AWAY Santos Laguna
1.61 xG 0.59
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
405 Passes 284
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 16
26 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Juarez nicked a narrow win over Santos Laguna 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FC Juarez as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FC Juarez had 56% of the ball to Santos Laguna's 44%, shots finished 17-4, expected goals 1.61 to 0.59.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Juarez had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Juarez and 1.50 for Santos Laguna.

What was the final score of FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna?

FC Juarez 1-0 Santos Laguna in the Mexico - Primera on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Juarez vs Santos Laguna?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Juarez win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FC Juarez 42%, draw 28%, Santos Laguna 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Juarez), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Juarez) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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