Pumas UNAM vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Pumas UNAM v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Pumas UNAM vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 3-1
Toluca
MEK
2-2
HT 0-1
Pumas UNAM
MEK
5-0
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Pumas UNAM 1-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Pumas UNAM and Toluca couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Pumas UNAM had 41% of the ball to Toluca's 59%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.63 to 0.77.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.33 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Toluca?
Pumas UNAM 1-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 39%, draw 25%, Toluca 36%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.