Lazio vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities
Lazio v Genoa — Team-Based Signals
Lazio vs Genoa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Lazio 3-2 Genoa — Actual Match Statistics
Lazio nicked a narrow win over Genoa 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. With 5 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.
The match data tells the story: possession split 55% to 45% in Lazio's favour, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 2.13 to 1.76.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 5 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.67 a game for Lazio against 0.17 for Genoa.
Lazio vs Genoa Result & Final Score
Lazio 3 - 2 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 30/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Lazio vs Genoa Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Lazio 42%, draw 35%, Genoa 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.