Hearts 1-1 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 30 Mar 2024

Hearts
1-1 HT 1-0
Kilmarnock
📅30/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2023/2024

Hearts vs Kilmarnock Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.95
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.95
6+ Goals
9%
17.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
12%
4.78
X/2
8%
6.21
X/X
11%
4.36
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
16%
4.6
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hearts v Kilmarnock — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hearts EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.49/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.18
+20% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
227 · 64% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 67%
24.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.4 Crosses 22.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Hearts vs Kilmarnock Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hearts
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.47
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 Passes 202
75% Pass Accuracy 65%
24 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-1 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
26.09.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 1-2 HT 0-1 Hearts Hearts İKLK
13.08.2023 Hearts Hearts 0-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
01.04.2023 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-1 HT 2-1 Hearts Hearts İKP
17.12.2022 Hearts Hearts 3-1 HT 2-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
09.10.2022 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-2 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP

Hearts 1-1 Kilmarnock — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hearts
1-1
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.61 xG 1.43
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
360 Passes 190
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
25 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hearts vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hearts and Kilmarnock shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hearts at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hearts had 61% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 39%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.61 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Hearts and 1.00 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Hearts 1-1 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hearts vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hearts 42%, draw 28%, Kilmarnock 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hearts), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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