30/03/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
2-0
Brea vs Naxara Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
46%
20%
Draw
29%
29%
Away Win
25%
57%
Under 2.5
64%
43%
Over 2.5
36%
46%
BTTS Yes
42%
54%
BTTS No
58%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Brea v Naxara — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Brea
EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Naxara
EU Bookmakers 29%
-14% /
-11%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-24% /
-24%
0.84/0.70
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.54/1.42
-34%
/
+28%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-43%
/
-17%
50%
Ball Possession
50%
13
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Target
3
5
Corners
5
242 · 67%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
240 · 67%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.4
Yellow Cards
2.6
Brea vs Naxara Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Brea
0W-0D-1L
AWAY
Naxara
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
3.00
45%
Ball Possession
55%
6
Total Shots
15
2
Shots on Target
6
4
Corners
3
6
Yellow Cards
3
The Meetings
19.11.2023
Naxara
3-0
HT 1-0
Brea
İS4
3-0
HT 1-0
Brea
İS4
Brea 1-0 Naxara — Actual Match Statistics
RESULT
Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME
Brea
1-0
AWAY
Naxara
56%
Ball Possession
44%
14
Total Shots
7
5
Shots on Target
2
6
Corners
2
2
Yellow Cards
2
POST-MATCH
Brea vs Naxara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Brea edged past Naxara 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Brea as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Brea had 56% of the ball to Naxara's 44%, shots finished 14-7.
What was the final score of Brea vs Naxara?
Brea 1-0 Naxara in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Brea vs Naxara?
Before kick-off our model rated a Brea win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Brea 51%, draw 20%, Naxara 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brea), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Brea)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İS4
More Spain - 2nd Division RFEF
30 Mar 2024