Basel 2-2 Zürich — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.81
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.15
6+ Goals
7%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 33% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.76
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
9%
13.4
X/1
11%
5.3
X/2
12%
5.51
X/X
13%
4.17
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
16%
3.96
2/X
8%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
35%
Away Win
35%
-0.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Zürich EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +22%
1.48/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.29
-13% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +32%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
17.7 Crosses 19.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Zürich
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.25 xG 1.56
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
386 Passes 221
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
21.01.2024 Zürich Zürich 0-0 HT 0-0 Basel Basel İSV
03.09.2023 Basel Basel 2-2 HT 0-1 Zürich Zürich İSV
07.05.2023 Basel Basel 0-2 HT 0-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
08.04.2023 Zürich Zürich 1-1 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
20.10.2022 Basel Basel 0-0 HT 0-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
28.08.2022 Zürich Zürich 2-4 HT 1-1 Basel Basel İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
2-2
AWAY Zürich
0.33 xG 0.73
45% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
256 Passes 326
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Basel vs Zürich
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Basel and Zürich shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Basel had 45% of the ball to Zürich's 55%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 0.33 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Basel and 1.17 for Zürich.

What was the final score of Basel vs Zürich?

Basel 2-2 Zürich in the Switzerland - Super League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Zürich?

Before kick-off our model rated a Basel win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Basel 35%, draw 30%, Zürich 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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İSV More Switzerland - Super League
30 Mar 2024
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