Stade Ouchy 1-3 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.76
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.24
6+ Goals
9%
11.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.24 — our 29% vs market 25.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
6.58
1/2
6%
22.3
1/X
4%
15.05
X/1
10%
8.83
X/2
11%
4.09
X/X
12%
5.35
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
31%
2.26
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.5
Value flag · 2/X at 14.5 — our 11% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.1pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Ouchy EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 57%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.05/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.44
-32% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / +120%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
285 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 81%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
14.7 Crosses 14.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Ouchy
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Lugano
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.04 xG 2.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
278 Passes 449
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 28
8 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.01.2024 Lugano Lugano 2-3 HT 0-3 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy İSV
26.07.2023 Stade Ouchy Stade Ouchy 0-3 HT 0-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Ouchy
1-3
AWAY Lugano
1.22 xG 2.48
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
241 Passes 440
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 30
8 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stade Ouchy vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano beat Stade Ouchy 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lugano as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Stade Ouchy had 39% of the ball to Lugano's 61%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.22 to 2.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Stade Ouchy and 2.50 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Stade Ouchy vs Lugano?

Stade Ouchy 1-3 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Ouchy vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Stade Ouchy 25%, draw 27%, Lugano 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSV More Switzerland - Super League
30 Mar 2024
20:00 Winterthur vs Servette Analysis →
22:30 Basel vs Zürich Analysis →