San Diego 3-2 Los Angeles FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.95
Over 2.5
40%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.66
No
55%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.38
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.26
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 32% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.41
1/2
4%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
11%
5.47
X/2 EV+ ✗
17%
6.27
X/X
15%
4.81
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
16%
4.22
2/X
8%
13.0
Value flag · X/2 at 6.27 — our 17% vs market 12.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
40%
-6.1pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
48%
+12.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
52%
-12.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-11.6pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Diego EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Los Angeles FC EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +7%
1.52/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.49
-66% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +0%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 80%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.0
26.9 Crosses 14.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Diego
3-2
AWAY Los Angeles FC
2.87 xG 1.57
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
701 Passes 400
91% Pass Accuracy 89%
25 Box Touches 19
13 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH San Diego vs Los Angeles FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Diego squeezed past Los Angeles FC 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and on the day San Diego made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, San Diego had 63% of the ball to Los Angeles FC's 37%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.87 to 1.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold San Diego's control.

What was the final score of San Diego vs Los Angeles FC?

San Diego 3-2 Los Angeles FC in the USA - Major League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Diego vs Los Angeles FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Los Angeles FC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split San Diego 34%, draw 29%, Los Angeles FC 37%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Los Angeles FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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