Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Borussia Dortmund v Mainz 05 — Team-Based Signals
Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05 Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Mainz 05
AL1
2-2
HT 0-2
Mainz 05
AL1
1-2
HT 1-1
Borussia Dortmund
AL1
0-1
HT 0-0
Borussia Dortmund
AL1
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Mainz 05 — Actual Match Statistics
Borussia Dortmund beat Mainz 05 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 44% of the ball to Mainz 05's 56%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.85 to 0.81.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.67 for Mainz 05.
What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05?
Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Mainz 05 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Mainz 05?
Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 45%, draw 25%, Mainz 05 29%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.