Freiburg 1-2 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.97
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.78
6+ Goals
9%
16.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.68
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
13%
4.58
X/2
10%
7.87
X/X
15%
4.52
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
12%
6.17
2/X
9%
14.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.7pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.6pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 29%
+7% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -11%
1.90/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.48
+16% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
369 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 75%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.9 Crosses 18.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.77 xG 1.46
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
505 Passes 241
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
28 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
08.11.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-0 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
18.05.2024 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
13.01.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
13.05.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 4-2 HT 3-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
13.11.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 4-1 HT 4-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
07.05.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-4 HT 0-3 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-2
AWAY Union Berlin
1.40 xG 1.03
72% Ball Possession 28%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
513 Passes 161
84% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 15
36 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Berlin nicked a narrow win over Freiburg 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Freiburg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Freiburg had 72% of the ball to Union Berlin's 28%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 1.40 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Freiburg and 1.83 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs Union Berlin?

Freiburg 1-2 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 43%, draw 29%, Union Berlin 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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