Greuther Fürth 3-3 Schalke 04 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.34
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.41
6+ Goals
10%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.34 — our 30% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.95
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
12%
6.01
X/2
16%
5.76
X/X
14%
4.65
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
16%
3.7
2/X
7%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.6pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -16%
1.56/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.78
+15% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -25%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 78%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
18.3 Crosses 19.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Schalke 04
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
2.11 xG 0.97
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
354 Passes 354
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
26.10.2024 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 3-4 HT 1-3 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
19.05.2024 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-0 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL2
15.12.2023 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 2-2 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
02.02.2013 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 1-2 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL1
15.09.2012 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-2 HT 0-0 Schalke 04 Schalke 04 AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
3-3
AWAY Schalke 04
2.47 xG 1.22
37% Ball Possession 63%
13 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
268 Passes 495
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 21
8 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Schalke 04
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth and Schalke 04 couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 37% of the ball to Schalke 04's 63%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.47 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Greuther Fürth and 1.60 for Schalke 04.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Schalke 04?

Greuther Fürth 3-3 Schalke 04 in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Schalke 04?

Before kick-off our model rated an Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 34%, draw 27%, Schalke 04 38%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Schalke 04) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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