Schalke 04 3-4 Greuther Fürth — Result, Stats & Model Review (Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2024)

Schalke 04

3-4 HT 1-3

Greuther Fürth

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗

Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

39%

1.9

Draw

29%

3.45

Away

32%

3.48

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45%

2.07

Over 2.5

55%

1.68

Both Teams to Score

Yes

54%

1.61

46%

2.16

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

24%

4.05

2-3 Goals

38%

1.84

4-5 Goals

25%

3.09

6+ Goals

13%

9.95

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

19%

2.51

1/2

34.5

1/X

12.6

X/1

12%

4.59

X/2

8.1

X/X

14%

5.04

2/1 EV+ ✗

23.15

2/2

16%

5.63

2/X

13.1

Value flag · 2/1 at 23.15 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our call

Over 2.5 — 55% ✓

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

39%

Home Win

49%

-9.5pp

29%

Draw

26%

+2.9pp

32%

Away Win

26%

+6.6pp

45%

Under 2.5

44%

+0.4pp

55%

Over 2.5

56%

-0.4pp

54%

BTTS Yes

58%

-4.0pp

46%

BTTS No

42%

+4.0pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Schalke 04 v Greuther Fürth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Schalke 04 EU Bookmakers 53%

Head to Head

AWAY Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 29%

-8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%

1.62/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.72

+26% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -6%

46% Ball Possession 54%

14 Total Shots 13

5 Shots on Target 4

5 Corners 4

293 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 369 · 80%

25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3

22.7 Crosses 14.8

2.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Schalke 04

1W-1D-2L

AWAY Greuther Fürth

1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50

0.92 xG 1.82

47% Ball Possession 53%

15 Total Shots 11

5 Shots on Target 4

5 Corners 3

296 Passes 350

76% Pass Accuracy 78%

14 Box Touches 19

14 Crosses 10

4 Yellow Cards 0

The Meetings

19.05.2024 Greuther Fürth

2-0 HT 0-0

Schalke 04 AL2

15.12.2023 Schalke 04

2-2 HT 1-0

Greuther Fürth AL2

02.02.2013 Schalke 04

1-2 HT 0-0

Greuther Fürth AL1

15.09.2012 Greuther Fürth

0-2 HT 0-0

Schalke 04 AL1

Schalke 04 3-4 Greuther Fürth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Schalke 04

3-4

AWAY Greuther Fürth

1.07 xG 2.70

56% Ball Possession 44%

20 Total Shots 16

6 Shots on Target 7

6 Corners 5

471 Passes 362

87% Pass Accuracy 84%

20 Box Touches 16

26 Crosses 19

5 Yellow Cards 3

POST-MATCH Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth squeezed past Schalke 04 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 32%) promised a tight game; Greuther Fürth found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Schalke 04 had 56% of the ball to Greuther Fürth's 44%, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 1.07 to 2.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Greuther Fürth's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.50 for Greuther Fürth.

What was the final score of Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth?

Schalke 04 3-4 Greuther Fürth in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Schalke 04 vs Greuther Fürth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Schalke 04 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Schalke 04 39%, draw 29%, Greuther Fürth 32%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Schalke 04) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Schalke 04) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →

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