Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-4 Kaiserslautern — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2024

Fortuna Düsseldorf
3-4 HT 1-1
Kaiserslautern
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Kaiserslautern Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.04
6+ Goals
12%
9.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.22
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
12%
4.16
X/2
9%
9.09
X/X
13%
5.58
2/1
11%
21.45
2/2
13%
6.54
2/X
7%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS Yes — 51% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.9pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+6.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Kaiserslautern — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kaiserslautern EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -13%
1.78/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.60
-2% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
24.9 Crosses 18.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Kaiserslautern Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Kaiserslautern
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.00 xG 1.40
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
438 Passes 237
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.03.2024 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 1-3 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
21.10.2023 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-3 HT 1-3 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2
28.05.2023 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 0-3 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
11.11.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 HT 1-0 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern AL2
04.02.2020 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 2-5 HT 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AFK
27.01.2018 Kaiserslautern Kaiserslautern 1-3 HT 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-4 Kaiserslautern — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
3-4
AWAY Kaiserslautern
2.03 xG 1.32
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
425 Passes 317
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Kaiserslautern
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kaiserslautern edged past Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Düsseldorf at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fortuna Düsseldorf had 57% of the ball to Kaiserslautern's 43%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.03 to 1.32 — the balance of chances actually favoured Fortuna Düsseldorf.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Düsseldorf had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.50 for Kaiserslautern.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Kaiserslautern?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-4 Kaiserslautern in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Kaiserslautern?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Düsseldorf 43%, draw 27%, Kaiserslautern 30%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✓ BTTS Yes
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