Elversberg 4-2 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.51
Over 2.5
47%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.41
No
50%
2.67
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
5.58
2-3 Goals
43%
2.02
4-5 Goals
22%
2.64
6+ Goals
11%
6.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.58 — our 24% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.7
1/2
6%
23.15
1/X
7%
12.0
X/1
8%
6.42
X/2
17%
5.76
X/X
11%
5.65
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
16%
3.18
2/X
10%
11.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
36%
-3.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
36%
+17.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
64%
-17.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
67%
-16.9pp
50%
BTTS No
33%
+16.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elversberg EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.23/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/1.38
-10% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +0%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 78%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
13.6 Crosses 18.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elversberg
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Hamburg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.98 xG 1.23
41% Ball Possession 59%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 6
266 Passes 422
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
16.09.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 2-1 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elversberg
4-2
AWAY Hamburg
2.09 xG 1.62
42% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
302 Passes 455
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Elversberg vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg saw off Hamburg 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Elversberg found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Elversberg had 42% of the ball to Hamburg's 58%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 2.09 to 1.62.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Elversberg and 1.00 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Elversberg vs Hamburg?

Elversberg 4-2 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elversberg vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Elversberg 33%, draw 28%, Hamburg 39%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Under 2.5
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