PFC Beroe 1-4 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.08
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
Over 2.5
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.16
No
56%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
29%
-0.1pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.9pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+1.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.2pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PFC Beroe EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 43%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.52/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/0.56
+54% / +101% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +69%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PFC Beroe
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 1-1 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
11.11.2023 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 1-0 HT 0-0 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe BUL1
24.07.2023 PFC Beroe PFC Beroe 1-0 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PFC Beroe
1-4
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
10 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PFC Beroe vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arda Kardzhali ran out comfortable winners over PFC Beroe 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (29% / 31% / 40%) promised a tight game; Arda Kardzhali found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, PFC Beroe had 50% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 50%, shots finished 13-14.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for PFC Beroe and 0.67 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of PFC Beroe vs Arda Kardzhali?

PFC Beroe 1-4 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PFC Beroe vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arda Kardzhali win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split PFC Beroe 29%, draw 31%, Arda Kardzhali 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arda Kardzhali) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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