Hobro IK 1-1 Roskilde — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.52
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.17
6+ Goals
9%
11.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.52 — our 27% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.31
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
15%
4.42
X/2
6%
9.11
X/X
11%
5.29
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
12%
7.01
2/X
7%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.0pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.8pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hobro IK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Roskilde EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -23%
1.78/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.85
-13% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -31%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
31.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.9
21.7 Crosses 13.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hobro IK
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Roskilde
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.29 xG 0.34
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
396 Passes 444
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
30 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2024 Hobro IK Hobro IK 4-1 HT 1-1 Roskilde Roskilde DAN1
10.08.2024 Roskilde Roskilde 0-2 HT 0-1 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
13.10.2015 Roskilde Roskilde 0-0 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hobro IK
1-1
AWAY Roskilde
0.93 xG 1.36
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
500 Passes 350
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hobro IK vs Roskilde
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hobro IK and Roskilde shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hobro IK at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Hobro IK had 57% of the ball to Roskilde's 43%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 0.93 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Hobro IK had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Hobro IK and 0.33 for Roskilde.

What was the final score of Hobro IK vs Roskilde?

Hobro IK 1-1 Roskilde in the Denmark 1st Division on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hobro IK vs Roskilde?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hobro IK win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hobro IK 50%, draw 26%, Roskilde 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hobro IK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hobro IK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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