Manta 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.8pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
-0.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manta EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 38%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+46% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 76%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
12.6 Crosses
4.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manta
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Libertad
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.10.2022 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Manta Manta EKV2
31.08.2022 Manta Manta 2-2 HT 2-1 Libertad Libertad EKV2
03.06.2022 Libertad Libertad 0-0 HT 0-0 Manta Manta EKV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manta
1-1
AWAY Libertad
1.09 xG 1.56
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 4
272 Passes 150
81% Pass Accuracy 69%
12 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manta vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manta and Libertad couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Manta had 62% of the ball to Libertad's 38%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 1.09 to 1.56.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Manta and 0.67 for Libertad.

What was the final score of Manta vs Libertad?

Manta 1-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manta vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manta win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Manta 36%, draw 29%, Libertad 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Manta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Manta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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