Mushuc Runa 1-1 Emelec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.9
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
48%
+3.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.3pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.7pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Emelec EU Bookmakers 29%
+16% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +4%
1.53/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.38
+50% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
251 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 75%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
25.2 Crosses 14.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Emelec
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.07 xG 1.58
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
234 Passes 329
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-0 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
09.03.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
23.09.2023 Emelec Emelec 3-1 HT 1-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
24.04.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
02.10.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
08.05.2022 Emelec Emelec 4-0 HT 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
1-1
AWAY Emelec
1.28 xG 0.56
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 2
174 Passes 130
64% Pass Accuracy 63%
17 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Emelec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa and Emelec couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Mushuc Runa at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 58% of the ball to Emelec's 42%, shots finished 19-11, expected goals 1.28 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emelec led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.17 for Emelec.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Emelec?

Mushuc Runa 1-1 Emelec in the Ecuador - Premier on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Emelec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mushuc Runa win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 52%, draw 23%, Emelec 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Mushuc Runa), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Mushuc Runa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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