Bournemouth vs Manchester City Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bournemouth v Manchester City — Team-Based Signals
Bournemouth vs Manchester City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
6-1
HT 3-0
Bournemouth
İNP
1-4
HT 0-3
Manchester City
İNP
4-0
HT 3-0
Bournemouth
İNP
2-1
HT 1-1
Bournemouth
İNLK
Bournemouth 1-2 Manchester City — Actual Match Statistics
Manchester City squeezed past Bournemouth 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Bournemouth had 36% of the ball to Manchester City's 64%, shots finished 5-17, expected goals 1.67 to 3.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester City's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Bournemouth and 3.00 for Manchester City.
What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Bournemouth 1-2 Manchester City in the England - FA Cup on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Before kick-off our model rated an Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 31%, draw 25%, Manchester City 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.