Tobol 1-1 Yelimay Semey — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Super League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.5pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.0pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tobol EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Yelimay Semey EU Bookmakers 32%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.38/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.42
+0% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tobol
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Yelimay Semey
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
15.09.2024 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey 2-1 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
06.03.2024 Tobol Tobol 4-2 HT 2-1 Yelimay Semey Yelimay Semey KAZP
POST-MATCH Tobol vs Yelimay Semey
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol and Yelimay Semey couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Tobol at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Tobol and 2.00 for Yelimay Semey.

What was the final score of Tobol vs Yelimay Semey?

Tobol 1-1 Yelimay Semey in the Kazakistan - Super League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tobol vs Yelimay Semey?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tobol win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tobol 42%, draw 30%, Yelimay Semey 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Tobol), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tobol) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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