Stal Rzeszow 2-4 Pogon Siedlce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.03
Over 2.5
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.63
No
42%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.73
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.99
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.05 — our 29% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Over 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.7pp
59%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.7pp
58%
BTTS Yes
57%
+0.3pp
42%
BTTS No
43%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Rzeszow EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Siedlce EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -27%
2.04/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.88
+25% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Rzeszow
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.09.2024 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-1 HT 1-1 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL1
01.05.2022 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 1-4 HT 0-1 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL2
07.04.2021 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow 1-5 HT 0-1 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce POL2
05.09.2020 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 0-2 HT 0-0 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL2
17.11.2019 Pogon Siedlce Pogon Siedlce 2-1 HT 2-0 Stal Rzeszow Stal Rzeszow POL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Rzeszow
2-4
AWAY Pogon Siedlce
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 27
4 Shots on Target 12
6 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Stal Rzeszow vs Pogon Siedlce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Siedlce got the better of Stal Rzeszow 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Stal Rzeszow at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Stal Rzeszow had 54% of the ball to Pogon Siedlce's 46%, shots finished 10-27.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Stal Rzeszow and 1.80 for Pogon Siedlce.

What was the final score of Stal Rzeszow vs Pogon Siedlce?

Stal Rzeszow 2-4 Pogon Siedlce in the Poland - 1st Division on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Rzeszow vs Pogon Siedlce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Rzeszow win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Stal Rzeszow 46%, draw 24%, Pogon Siedlce 30%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Stal Rzeszow) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stal Rzeszow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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