Stal Stalowa Wola 3-3 Nieciecza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.69
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.9
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 32% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
24%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
24%
+2.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Stalowa Wola EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Nieciecza EU Bookmakers 54%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
1.25/1.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.66/0.65
+18% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +50%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
228 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Stalowa Wola
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Nieciecza
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
01.09.2024 Nieciecza Nieciecza 3-0 HT 1-0 Stal Stalowa Wola Stal Stalowa Wola POL1
22.06.2019 Nieciecza Nieciecza 3-1 HT 3-0 Stal Stalowa Wola Stal Stalowa Wola HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Stalowa Wola
3-3
AWAY Nieciecza
35% Ball Possession 65%
16 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stal Stalowa Wola vs Nieciecza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stal Stalowa Wola and Nieciecza shared the points in a 3-3 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Nieciecza at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stal Stalowa Wola had 35% of the ball to Nieciecza's 65%, shots finished 16-17.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Nieciecza led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Stal Stalowa Wola and 3.00 for Nieciecza.

What was the final score of Stal Stalowa Wola vs Nieciecza?

Stal Stalowa Wola 3-3 Nieciecza in the Poland - 1st Division on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Stalowa Wola vs Nieciecza?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nieciecza win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Stal Stalowa Wola 26%, draw 27%, Nieciecza 46%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nieciecza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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