Katowice 2-1 Gornik Zabrze — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Mar 2025

Katowice
2-1 HT 1-0
Gornik Zabrze
📅30/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Katowice vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
34%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.35
6+ Goals
9%
12.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 30% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.16
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
15%
5.14
X/2
10%
6.57
X/X
12%
4.83
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
18%
4.62
2/X
5%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Katowice v Gornik Zabrze — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +19%
1.32/1.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.28
-33% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 81%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
22.9 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Katowice vs Gornik Zabrze Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.43 xG 3.30
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
417 Passes 430
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
11 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2024 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-0 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL
27.09.2023 Katowice Katowice 0-4 HT 0-2 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POLK
20.10.2022 Katowice Katowice 1-2 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POLK
16.11.2018 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze HAZ
05.07.2018 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze HAZ
27.06.2015 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 3-1 HT 1-1 Katowice Katowice HAZ

Katowice 2-1 Gornik Zabrze — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
2-1
AWAY Gornik Zabrze
1.27 xG 2.36
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 25
4 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 9
309 Passes 486
83% Pass Accuracy 88%
22 Box Touches 34
23 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Gornik Zabrze
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice nicked a narrow win over Gornik Zabrze 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and on the day Katowice made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Katowice had 41% of the ball to Gornik Zabrze's 59%, shots finished 16-25, expected goals 1.27 to 2.36 — the balance of chances actually favoured Gornik Zabrze.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gornik Zabrze led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Katowice and 2.17 for Gornik Zabrze.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Gornik Zabrze?

Katowice 2-1 Gornik Zabrze in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Gornik Zabrze?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Katowice 40%, draw 26%, Gornik Zabrze 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Katowice) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Katowice) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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