Motor Lublin 4-1 Stal Mielec — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.0
Over 2.5
51%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
12%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.87
1/2
7%
32.5
1/X
6%
12.65
X/1
18%
5.05
X/2
10%
7.29
X/X
11%
5.04
2/1
7%
23.75
2/2
12%
5.06
2/X
8%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.0pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.7pp
49%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -5%
1.52/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.19
-54% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
349 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 77%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
21.8 Crosses 18.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Stal Mielec
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.11 xG 1.42
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
357 Passes 387
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 25
22 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
22.09.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 1-0 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
4-1
AWAY Stal Mielec
1.49 xG 1.24
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
336 Passes 399
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Stal Mielec
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin cruised past Stal Mielec 4-1. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Motor Lublin as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 46% of the ball to Stal Mielec's 54%, shots finished 15-19, expected goals 1.49 to 1.24.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Stal Mielec?

Motor Lublin 4-1 Stal Mielec in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Stal Mielec?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 46%, draw 26%, Stal Mielec 29%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motor Lublin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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