Krasnodar 5-0 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
24%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.89
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
4.24
6+ Goals
10%
20.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.91
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
18.0
X/1
17%
3.76
X/2
8%
12.6
X/X
12%
5.08
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
11%
11.65
2/X
6%
20.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-12.1pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
24%
Away Win
15%
+9.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
-0.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
+0.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+0.7pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +14%
1.94/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.43
+3% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +11%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
437 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
17.9 Crosses 15.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krasnodar
1W-4D-0L
AWAY Fakel
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 1.01
67% Ball Possession 33%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
455 Passes 169
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
22 Box Touches 14
15 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
19.04.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
25.08.2023 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
05.11.2022 Fakel Fakel 3-3 HT 1-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.07.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-2 HT 2-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krasnodar
5-0
AWAY Fakel
3.79 xG 1.42
68% Ball Possession 32%
23 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
377 Passes 139
87% Pass Accuracy 70%
39 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Krasnodar vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krasnodar cruised past Fakel 5-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Krasnodar as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Krasnodar had 68% of the ball to Fakel's 32%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 3.79 to 1.42.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Krasnodar had the better of it with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Krasnodar and 1.00 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Krasnodar 5-0 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krasnodar vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Krasnodar 51%, draw 25%, Fakel 24%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Krasnodar), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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