Fakel 0-0 Krasnodar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.91
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
47%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.79
6+ Goals
7%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
11.9
1/2
12%
25.5
1/X
6%
20.15
X/1
12%
13.6
X/2
17%
3.42
X/X
13%
5.37
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
17%
1.81
2/X
11%
18.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
14%
+9.5pp
29%
Draw
22%
+7.2pp
47%
Away Win
64%
-16.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Krasnodar EU Bookmakers 69%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
0.92/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/0.75
-12% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / +3%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
227 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 80%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.2
17.7 Crosses 13.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Krasnodar
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.04 xG 1.99
34% Ball Possession 66%
12 Total Shots 18
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
176 Passes 441
66% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 24
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.04.2024 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
25.08.2023 Fakel Fakel 0-0 HT 0-0 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
05.11.2022 Fakel Fakel 3-3 HT 1-2 Krasnodar Krasnodar RUS
17.07.2022 Krasnodar Krasnodar 2-2 HT 2-1 Fakel Fakel RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
0-0
AWAY Krasnodar
0.86 xG 1.31
29% Ball Possession 71%
2 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
137 Passes 510
56% Pass Accuracy 83%
5 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Krasnodar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel and Krasnodar fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Krasnodar at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Fakel had 29% of the ball to Krasnodar's 71%, shots finished 2-14, expected goals 0.86 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Krasnodar led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Fakel and 1.75 for Krasnodar.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Krasnodar?

Fakel 0-0 Krasnodar in the Russia - Premier League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Krasnodar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Krasnodar win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fakel 23%, draw 29%, Krasnodar 47%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Krasnodar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Krasnodar) ✓ BTTS No
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