CSKA Moskova 5-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
20%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.15
Over 2.5
45%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.75
No
59%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
4.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
20%
3.01
6+ Goals
11%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 32% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.9
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
16.3
X/1
16%
3.79
X/2
5%
11.6
X/X
17%
6.14
2/1
12%
21.3
2/2
11%
8.75
2/X
5%
16.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.6pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.9pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-12.5pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -5%
1.72/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.67
+21% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -3%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
453 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 73%
30.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
19.9 Crosses 15.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CSKA Moskova
3W-3D-0L
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.03 xG 0.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
316 Passes 373
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
02.11.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
25.08.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
26.07.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 0-6 HT 0-4 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
07.05.2023 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 2-1 HT 1-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
23.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-2 HT 1-2 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CSKA Moskova
5-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.60 xG 0.91
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 17
12 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
305 Passes 379
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 43
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CSKA Moskova swept aside FK Orenburg 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had CSKA Moskova as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CSKA Moskova had 44% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 56%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 2.60 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for CSKA Moskova and 1.00 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg?

CSKA Moskova 5-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Premier League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CSKA Moskova vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a CSKA Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split CSKA Moskova 54%, draw 26%, FK Orenburg 20%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (CSKA Moskova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (CSKA Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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