Lexington 2-3 San Antonio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.74
Over 2.5
41%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.91
6+ Goals
10%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 32% vs market 29.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
12%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
38%
+3.0pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-4.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lexington EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY San Antonio EU Bookmakers 38%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +13%
1.51/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.18
+10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
343 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 76%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.0 Crosses 18.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lexington
2-3
AWAY San Antonio
1.93 xG 1.17
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 2
387 Passes 225
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lexington vs San Antonio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Antonio squeezed past Lexington 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lexington at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lexington had 61% of the ball to San Antonio's 39%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 1.93 to 1.17 — on chances, Lexington could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Lexington vs San Antonio?

Lexington 2-3 San Antonio in the USL Championship on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lexington vs San Antonio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lexington win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lexington 41%, draw 29%, San Antonio 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lexington) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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